You go to your favorite bookmaker.
You place a bet based on your instinct or simply becuase a friend told you that is the winning combination.
Fast forward to after the match and you have lost your bet.
If this is you, then you need to read this article.
Predicting the outcome of a football match is both art and science.
And for you to successfully win more football bet, you need to have all the necessary tools at your disposal to help you.
That is what you will learn in this article.
If you want to learn how to predict football matches, you should read on.
In fact, I highly encourage you to read the whole article but if you are in haste and rather prefer someone to do it for you, check out our football prediction tips.
- How to predict football matches and win
- How to predict the outcome of a football match
- How to predict high scoring football matches
- How to predict football matches using odds
- How to predict a draw in football
How To Predict Football Matches And Win
The point of mastering accurate predictions about a football match is for you to win at the end. This is how to predict football matches and win:
1. Consider Match Variables
The most important variable to consider when predicting a match’s current odds is the previous performance of both teams using goal differences, ball possession, shots on target, shots on goal, and shots location.
This data provides you with information to make clearer, and more informed decisions about a team’s next match.
2. Goal Expectancy Data
The goal expectancy data of the team you’re betting on, can be found on betting websites, sports forums, and match previews by professional commentators who give vital information about possible number of goals on a match.
Collecting data about goal expectancy of a team from various sources, enables you to understand the possibility of goals between two teams in a match.
3. Team Lineup
Before you make your predictions or place your bets, ensure that you check which players will play in a match and read everything you can about them. This is because a team is as strong as its weakest link, one injured player, one player who is playing where they shouldn’t can undo all the predictions you spent time preparing for
The best players in a match can give your dream team better chances of winning, but a new player can also change the results and outcome of a game.
4. Home Advantage
Where is your favourite team playing?
A team playing with a home field advantage, is likely to perform better than their opponent in a match, such a team can get up to +0.74 goal advantage over the opposing team, the home team can also be granted hosting privileges that place them at an advantage over the guests.
How To Predict The Outcome Of A Football Match
The ability to accurately predict the outcome of a football match is no longer a power that only your bookmaker or your friend can wield.
By following our advice on how to predict the outcome of a football match, you too can know how a match will end before it does.
1. Organise Your Working Order
Rather than randomly selecting and running half-hazard analysis on matches before betting, search for valuable odds; choose two matches worth staking in after analysing several events and bet on those.
2. Focus On Quality Matches
When you try to bet on too many leagues each day, you may end up losing all your money, because you don’t have the time to give each match the attention and thorough research it needs.
Since you cannot go through dozens of match fixtures in a day, focus on quality matches that are offering you the best odds and can be easily predicted.
3. Follow Few Soccer Leagues
You cannot be an expert on both teams in international and local leagues. Instead concentrate on one or two teams and try to understand their performance in matches.
Once your understanding of a team grows, you can easily identify their strengths and weaknesses and predict how they will perform against various opponents.
4. Use Statistics
Use statistics on your favourite teams like number of goals, yellow cards, corners, fouls, ball possession, team’s respect for rules, and the team’s morale during a match, to make predictions.
How To Predict High Scoring Football Matches
Not every team scores as well as others in a match and to win, you need to spot those high scoring matches and predict them. This is how to do that.
1. Team’s Calendar
You can use your team’s calendar to know if your favourite team is in the best shape to play.
A team that has been playing for a long time in between leagues and major events may be exhausted and have a hard time adjusting for their next game, making them disadvantaged.
2. A Team’s Relationship
Internal conflicts, lack of team spirit, and disagreements between a coach and his players, can yield poor results for a team during a match.
Understand team conflicts and how it’s affected the team’s ability to work together in the past, did they play through it or did it affect their scores?
3. Shots On Goal
Teams with high goal shots are likely to score more goals, find the data for your team’s ball possession and quantity of goal shots. These are the teams that make better shots on the goal statistics.
4. Location Of Shots
Each team has a vantage point, when it comes to taking shots, some teams defend better from specific parts of the field and others also have favourable parts they take their best shots from.
Mastering those points is vital to your predictions.
How To Predict Football Matches Using Odds
You need to know how to play the odds to favour you, no matter which team is losing. This is how to predict football matches using odds and its influencing variables.
Money influences the odds of a bet because if more people bet on a team, it instills more confidence in that team than in their opponents, and this causes the odds to drop.
It is also wise to predict who to put your money on, by considering variables like the competitor’s strength, team’s conditions, weather, and possibility of match changes due injured players, goals, and the flow of money.
2. The Team’s Home And Away Performance
Most teams play better in away matches than they do in home matches, and vice versa.
Know your team’s performance history in both matches, and how other conditions like weather and field advantage affect their form and predict accordingly.
3. Follow The Trend
Follow the trend set by other bettors and how they benefit from in-play fluctuations.
Know things like why one team plays better than the other and which teams make strong comebacks so that you don’t bet against them for losing their last match.
How To Predict A Draw In Football
A draw can be considered a win, in a case where your bet allows you a payout, win or draw. This is how you predict a draw in football.
1. Back The Draw
As a bettor, you can actually achieve more value by backing a draw in your prediction.
What you can do is to study matches between two evenly matched teams like teams in the top 4 in the premier league, the same relegation zone, in the mid-table, and low scoring teams with lower goal expectancy, as those matches are more likely to end in a draw than others you can find.
Back your draws by judging a team’s position, using their league table at the end of the season or after several matches. You could follow the market if both teams are evenly priced below odds of free or odds of two to one, as this means that the market doesn’t know who will win, valuing the match more on the draw results
2. If Both Teams Want A Draw
Knowing if both teams want a draw is another way to predict one.
Simply look at the league table and upcoming fixtures for both teams; if one team needs a draw to win and the other needs it to avoid relegation, then both teams will be happy with a draw.
What you need to do then is not to back the draw during kick off, instead wait till the second-half when the draw becomes a more possible and inevitable outcome to back it.
3. When Both Teams Can’t Lose
You are likely to find teams who are locked in a draw because they can’t afford to lose a match in high end matches like the World Cup.
The first-half is tight, and has less attacks because no team wants to lose out. But in the final minutes of the match, things level and both teams try to score a draw.
Blind predictions won’t get you anywhere, as you are betting against other experienced bettors and battling a lot of variables. To truly stay at the top of football betting, use our guide to make more accurate match predictions.